The Himalayas - no longer a "blank spot" for climate science

Björn Alfthan

By GRID-Arendal

December 5^th, 2017

The Himalayas are breath taking. Seen from Kathmandu, mountains in the Langtang range line up shoulder to shoulder, snow-capped sentinels keeping watch over the green valleys below. On a clear day, they are hard to miss.

But according to scientists working on climate change in the Himalayas, there is one place they are missed -- in the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In fact, phrases like ¨blank spot on the map¨ and ¨data gap area¨ have been used with respect to the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report in 2007. The situation in 2014, when the 5th Assessment Report was released, was not much better.

The Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP), an initiative headed by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), is trying to address this gap.

The data exists but the problem is much of the regional Himalayan information is too fragmented and incomplete to come to any meaningful conclusions. The number of scientists from the region in the IPCC process has also been low.

Interestingly, the HIMAP process has drawn a lot of its inspiration and guidance from scientific assessment work in the Arctic. The idea of a Himalayan assessment gained momentum during an Arctic Circle meeting in Reykjavik in October 2014. Lars-Otto Reiersen, former Executive Secretary of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), has also been instrumental in providing advice in the design of the Himalayan process.

HIMAP is a large undertaking involving over 200 scientists over a four-year period. One of its main results is the delivery of a Comprehensive Assessment of the Status of the Hindu Kush Himalayas, an IPCC-like report which will be ready by May 2018. All of the draft chapters should be available on the HIMAP website by the end of January.

While the report tackles climate science and the fate of glaciers and water resources in the region, it is much more comprehensive and also focusses on food security, poverty, energy and gender. It also links these issues and challenges to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals and indicators were adopted at the United Nations in 2015.

The expectation is that the HIMAP report will provide a comprehensive, scientifically rigorous overview of the changes and challenges as well as the opportunities across the Himalayas, and that this information will support policies by national governments in the region.

At the global level, the expectation is also that the report will feed into the IPCC process. The timing for this is to happen is good, with the Himalayan report to be available in good time to be considered for some upcoming IPCC special reports and, of course, the 6th Assessment Report due in 2021.

Getting mountain data into the IPCC reports is just the first step. In reality, the hard work is just starting, to ensure that this monumental effort translates into meaningful changes in government policies and on the ground and for benefit of mountain communities. Here, ICIMOD and all its partners, including GRID-Arendal, have an important job to do in the future. Keep your eyes peeled for the report launch, expected in May.

Björn Alfthan was recently in Kathmandu for a conference on resilience in the Himalayas.

GRID-Arendal is a partner in the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) which has played an important role in providing new data and information for the HIMAP assessment.